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USDA's March WASDE cut Ukraine's wheat exports by 4 million metric tons to 20 million and Russia's by 3 million to 32 million, citing the war. Ukraine also announced an export ban on wheat, corn, sunflower oil, barley and other products, and USDA lowered Brazilian and Argentine soybean output because of drought.
Export losses from the Black Sea and the Ukrainian export ban remove a large share of world grain supply, which pushes wheat, corn and soybean prices higher.
dtnpf.comDTN StaffMar 9, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
