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Russia ended the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had allowed safe export of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural goods, and continues to block Ukraine's food exports. Analysts say Russia likely has no intention of rejoining and that the exit has not yet triggered a global food price spike.
Continued blockage constrains Ukrainian grain and fertilizer flows, which supports wheat and corn prices risk premiums, though the lack of an immediate spike limits the near-term move.
csis.orgCaitlin Welsh, Joseph Glauber, Emma CurtisSep 15, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
