
Wheat prices rose to their highest level since 2012 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Chicago wheat hit its daily trading limit, and Paris milling wheat traded about 16% higher.
Russia and Ukraine together export about 59 million metric tons of wheat each season.
A large share of world wheat exports is at risk, which pushes up global wheat and feed grain prices. Oilseeds and soybeans also rallied on the same escalation.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.