U.S. grains: Wheat leads grains higher with Russian strikes in focus

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 16, 2026Russia’s port strikes leave Ukraine’s grain with almost nowhere else to go - Euromaidan Press+3.9%
• Jun 9, 2022Wheat futures surge after Russia strikes Ukrainian grain terminal - Fastmarkets+1.2%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+1.8%
• Jan 31, 2022Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher-1.7%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-0.2%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 16, 2026Russia’s port strikes leave Ukraine’s grain with almost nowhere else to go - Euromaidan Press+3.1%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+0.6%
• Jan 31, 2022Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher+0.6%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-3.4%
• May 20, 2024Wheat Futures Surge on Russian Crop Worries -- Daily Grain Highlights+1.9%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• May 20, 2024Wheat Futures Surge on Russian Crop Worries -- Daily Grain Highlights+1.6%
• Feb 24, 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+0.1%
• Aug 29, 2018U.S. grains: Wheat soars on new rumours of Russian export curbs - Manitoba Co-operator+0.6%
• Feb 24, 2022The price of wheat has jumped to its highest level since 2012 amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine | Fortune+0.1%
• Jul 17, 2023Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices+0.4%