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U.S. wheat and corn futures jumped on Monday as traders expected Black Sea exports to stay disrupted by fighting in Ukraine. Soybeans rose sharply alongside crude oil, which gained on disruptions to energy shipments tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The May soft red winter wheat contract rose 7.6%, briefly hitting its daily limit.
Expected loss of Black Sea grain supply lifts global wheat and corn prices, and higher crude oil increases biofuel and feed input costs.
financialpost.comReutersMar 21, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports the 21 March rally in SRW wheat (May contract up 7.6%, briefly limit-up) on expectations that Black Sea exports stay disrupted, directly describing the move.
On 2022-03-21 SRW May futures jumped 7.6% and briefly hit the daily limit on expectations that Black Sea exports would stay disrupted, which accounts for much of the 5-day gain.
On March 21 crude gained on fears of disrupted energy shipments from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, directly supporting the final day of the 5-day rally.
