Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-8.1%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+5.3%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil futures return to structure signalling tight supply on Russia sanctions | Reuters+3.3%
• Mar 19, 2024Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns-1.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-5.7%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+2.7%
• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+6.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil futures return to structure signalling tight supply on Russia sanctions | Reuters+4.1%