Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-2.7%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+8.5%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+0.7%
• Feb 19, 2025Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.2%
• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+5.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.5%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+9.5%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+2.0%
• Feb 19, 2025Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.1%
• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+6.1%

After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.6%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+10.4%
• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+4.9%
• Feb 18, 2026Oil settles up 4% on Iran-US tensions, Russia-Ukraine talks end without breakthrough | Reuters+13.1%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-4.5%