Oil settles up 4% on Iran-US tensions, Russia-Ukraine talks end without breakthrough

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+5.3%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+0.8%
• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.3%
• May 21, 2026US oil prices rise as investors doubt breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks | Reuters-9.1%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+6.1%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+1.0%
• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.0%
• May 21, 2026US oil prices rise as investors doubt breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks | Reuters-11.6%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+4.9%
• Mar 12, 2026Oil settles up 9% as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed | Reuters+15.3%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+10.4%
• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.6%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+10.5%