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Oil settled up 9% as Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA called it the biggest oil-supply disruption in market history and approved a record 400 million barrel strategic stock release.
Middle East Gulf output has been cut by at least 10 million barrels per day, and China banned refined fuel exports for March.
A cut of roughly 10 million barrels per day, nearly 10% of world demand, is a major supply shock that keeps crude and diesel prices elevated. Chinese fuel export ban and doubts over the stockpile release sustain upward pressure on energy costs.
reuters.comSiddharth CavaleMar 12, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same-day report of oil settling up 9% as Iran vowed to keep Hormuz closed, with the IEA calling it the biggest supply disruption ever and Gulf output cut by at least 10 mb/d; a direct supply driver.
Brent settled up ~9% on March 12 as Iran vowed to keep Hormuz closed and the IEA called it the biggest supply disruption ever, a major supply driver inside the 5-day window.
Oil up 9% on Mar 12 as Iran vowed to keep Hormuz closed, the IEA called it the biggest supply disruption ever, Gulf output was cut 10+ mb/d and China banned refined fuel exports, a direct supply shock inside the 5-day window.
Oil up 9% on March 12 as Iran vowed to keep Hormuz closed, with the IEA calling it the largest supply disruption ever and China banning refined fuel exports, which directly tightens diesel supply within the 5-day window.
