Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 23, 2025Pump prices could rise after US, EU hit Russian oil companies with new sanctions and oil spikes | AP News+3.3%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+3.3%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil Prices Surge 5% as Russia Sanctions Meet A Tight Futures Market+3.3%
• Mar 20, 2025Oil prices settle $1 higher after US issues new Iran-related sanctions+3.9%
• Jan 29, 2019Oil prices rise as US imposes sanctions on Venezuela+5.2%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-4.1%
• Oct 22, 2025US hits top Russian oil companies with sanctions, EU bans Russian LNG | Reuters+5.0%
• Oct 23, 2025Pump prices could rise after US, EU hit Russian oil companies with new sanctions and oil spikes | AP News+4.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+4.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil Prices Surge 5% as Russia Sanctions Meet A Tight Futures Market+4.1%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-3.6%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+6.9%
• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.6%
• Oct 22, 2025Oil surges 5% after US sanctions Russian firms Rosneft, Lukoil | Reuters+7.6%
• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-3.6%