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Oil prices surged about 5% after new Russia sanctions hit a tight futures market, with managed money positioning nearly balanced. Analysts noted that Indian purchases of Russian crude could fall close to zero and that Russia produces about 11% of global supply.
Sanctions that cut Russian barrels from India remove a large share of discounted supply, supporting crude prices. Thin speculative positioning means prices can swing sharply, which adds volatility to energy costs.
forbes.comBrandon KochkodinOct 23, 2025After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Sanctions hit a tight futures market, with Indian purchases of Russian crude possibly falling near zero and Russia's roughly 11% of global supply at risk, amplifying the price jump.
