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Diesel prices in Asia, Europe and the US rose after the U.S. sanctioned Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegas, 183 vessels and other entities on January 10. European diesel backwardation reached a 10-month high and refining margins hit a five-month high of $20 a barrel.
At least 150,000 bpd of Russian diesel exports were expected to be disrupted.
Sanctions removing a large volume of Russian diesel exports, with margins and backwardation at multi-month highs, point to firmer global diesel prices. Higher fuel and freight costs add to the operating cost of feed production and delivery.
oilprice.comTsvetana ParaskovaJan 17, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Sanctions on Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegas and 183 vessels threatened 150k bpd of Russian diesel exports, tightening supply and lifting margins and backwardation.
