Diesel Prices Jump on Russia Sanctions and Refinery Outages

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-3.6%
• Sep 24, 2025Diesel Traders Bet on Price Spike as Russia Refineries Hit - TT-0.1%
• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-3.6%
• Jan 13, 2025Diesel market jumps on fear new sanctions may hit Russian supply | Sparta+4.9%
• Oct 29, 2025Diesel rally sparked by Western sanctions on Russia will be short-lived | Reuters+2.6%

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2025Diesel rally sparked by Western sanctions on Russia will be short-lived | Reuters+0.8%
• Oct 28, 2025The Commodities Feed: Sanction concerns boost diesel prices | ING THINK-0.4%
• Dec 2, 2022OPEC+ decision on oil quotas muddled by Russian sanctions | S&P Global-12.1%
• Nov 12, 2025Diesel Margins Rally as Russian Exports Plunge - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+0.6%
• Jan 30, 2026Market Talk | War, Peace, And Mixed Signals: Energy Prices React To A Turbulent Week-3.0%