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Global diesel margins surged to some of their highest levels in two years, with Northwest Europe ULSD cargoes reaching $781/mt on November 11. The rally follows a sharp drop in Russian diesel and gasoil exports, which fell below 3.0 million mt in September and October, after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and export terminals.
U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, taking effect November 21, are expected to constrain exports further.
Tighter Atlantic-basin diesel supply lifts diesel costs for freight and farm operations, and the downstream squeeze is pushing up product prices even though crude remains relatively well supplied.
opis.comNov 12, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
