Europe Diesel Crack Hits Two-Year High on Supply Fears - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Nov 12, 2025Diesel Margins Rally as Russian Exports Plunge - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+6.2%
• Aug 19, 2026Diesel in California hits $7 as wars in Europe, Middle East strain supply-6.3%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.6%
• Jan 13, 2025Diesel market jumps on fear new sanctions may hit Russian supply | Sparta+4.9%
• Feb 12, 2024Diesel: Fuel That Powers the Economy Flashes Supply Tightness in Europe - Bloomberg-4.9%

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Nov 12, 2025Diesel Margins Rally as Russian Exports Plunge - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+0.6%
• Jul 13, 2018Oil rises but declines for the week as supply concerns ease-1.4%
• Aug 24, 2022Oil ends higher on U.S. response to Iran nuclear deal comments-0.5%
• Apr 6, 2026OPEC+ to hike crude output: Will it make a difference to oil prices? | Euronews-9.7%
• Oct 29, 2020Kuwait says supports any OPEC+ supply decision as 2021 curbs loom | Financial Post+5.1%