
Oil prices rose about 1% on Friday after strikes in Norway and Iraq disrupted supplies. Futures were still set for a second weekly decline after Libyan ports reopened and expectations grew that Iran might keep exporting crude despite US sanctions.
Offsetting supply disruptions and returning Libyan and Iranian barrels leave the market balanced, so near-term energy costs are not clearly moving. Feed buyers should expect limited direct price pressure from crude in the short term.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.