
Brent settled at $82.72 a barrel on September 28, its highest level since November 2014, after rising more than 1%. US sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports while other producers raised output.
WTI settled at $73.25 and Sinopec was halving loadings of Iranian crude.
A four-year high in crude increases diesel, freight and processing costs across the feed chain. It also strengthens the case for higher biofuel feedstock values, which supports soybean oil and corn demand.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.