Brent crude rallies above $71 on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2024Crude Rallies on Middle East Tensions+9.6%
• Oct 1, 2026Brent crude oil surges past $102 amid Hormuz tensions, US-Iran conflict+2.6%
• May 28, 2019Brent raised above USD 70 by cuts and sanctions-9.0%
• Mar 24, 2025Crude Oil Rallies on Tougher Iranian Sanctions and OPEC+ Uncertainty | Investing.com AU+2.4%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+2.3%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2024Crude Rallies on Middle East Tensions+9.1%
• Oct 1, 2026Brent crude oil surges past $102 amid Hormuz tensions, US-Iran conflict-2.3%
• Mar 24, 2025Crude Oil Rallies on Tougher Iranian Sanctions and OPEC+ Uncertainty | Investing.com AU+1.7%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.5%
• Jan 29, 2026Crude Prices Surge as President Trump Ramps Up Pressure on Iran+2.9%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.6%
• Jan 29, 2026Crude Prices Surge as President Trump Ramps Up Pressure on Iran-4.2%
• Jan 29, 2026Brent Crude Settles at Highest Since July on Trump’s Iran Threat - Bloomberg-4.2%
• Mar 8, 2026Crude oil sells above $100 a barrel as Iran war impedes production | AP News+10.4%
• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.9%