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Brent crude settled at its highest level since July after rising 3.4% on Thursday, its third straight day of gains. The rally followed US threats against Iran, with WTI also advancing, and traders focused on possible disruption to Iranian crude exports or a critical shipping route.
Crude strength feeds into diesel, freight and fertilizer costs for feed supply chains and supports biofuel feedstock values. The move reflects a risk premium that could fade quickly if tensions ease.
bloomberg.comAlex Longley, Mia Gindis, Yongchang ChinJan 29, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
