Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday, with Brent at $116.72 and WTI at $103.27, their highest in about six months. The rise followed Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure, and an oil spill reported off the UAE coast.
Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Gulf shipping raise the risk of further crude and refined-product supply disruption, which feeds through to higher diesel and fuel costs for feed mills, transport and grain drying.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.