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Crude rose modestly on Sept. 30 as Israel-Hezbollah escalation raised concerns the conflict could draw in Iran, a major producer.
Chinese stocks surged 8% on stimulus hopes, and a stronger dollar limited gains. Libyan fields were expected to restart output, which capped the rally.
Middle East escalation adds a supply risk premium that lifts energy costs, while Libyan restarts and Saudi plans cap upside, leaving feed-energy and biofuel costs mixed.
barchart.comRich AsplundSep 30, 2024After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
