Oil trades near three-year high as Libya crisis tightens supply

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jun 29, 2018Oil hits new multi-year high as market tightens on lost supply+0.5%
• Jan 19, 2022Oil rises to 7-year high as Turkey outage adds to tight supply outlook+1.0%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.5%
• Mar 4, 2022Oil surges to multi-year highs as Russian supply shortfall looms-1.6%
• Apr 18, 2022Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears-4.0%

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Feb 23, 2022Ukraine crisis threatens sunoil supply, fuels vegoils rally+3.8%
• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg-0.7%
• Dec 12, 2016Oil surges to 1 1/2-year high, Fed rate increase looms-0.0%
• Feb 23, 2022Palm hits all-time high on supply concerns due to Ukraine crisis - Markets - Business Recorder+3.8%
• Jul 8, 2026Soybean Oil Hits Three-Week High as US-Iran Ceasefire Dissolves - Bloomberg+7.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 29, 2018Oil hits new multi-year high as market tightens on lost supply+0.2%
• Jan 19, 2022Oil rises to 7-year high as Turkey outage adds to tight supply outlook+0.8%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+2.3%
• Mar 4, 2022Oil surges to multi-year highs as Russian supply shortfall looms-0.9%
• Apr 18, 2022Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears-4.8%

After 327 past geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.6%
• Mar 1, 2019Oil prices rise as markets tighten due to OPEC supply cuts-0.7%
• Nov 19, 2025Europe Diesel Crack Hits Two-Year High on Supply Fears - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company-12.6%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+8.4%
• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+4.9%