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Palm and soybean oil prices surged and wheat hovered near its highest in almost two years as the Middle East war raised energy and fertilizer costs. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent crop nutrient prices soaring as farmers rush to secure supplies.
Higher crude prices boost biofuel demand for vegetable oils and corn, while fertilizer disruption threatens tighter future grain supplies, supporting feed-grain and oilseed prices.
bloomberg.comHallie GuMar 9, 2026After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, PALMOIL moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
