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Brent crude jumped as much as 13% to above $82 a barrel at the Monday open after US and Israeli attacks on Iran escalated over the weekend. Oil markets are bracing for prolonged volatility and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Disruption risk in Hormuz threatens a large share of global oil and LNG flows, pushing up energy costs for feed production and transport and supporting vegetable oil and biofuel-linked prices.
bloomberg.comRong Wei NeoMar 2, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent jumped as much as 13% at the Monday open on the weekend escalation and Hormuz disruption fears, driving the 1-day move.
Brent jumped as much as 13% on March 2 on Hormuz disruption fears, lifting vegetable oils through energy-linked biodiesel demand and sentiment.
The Brent spike of up to 13% on 2026-03-02 from Hormuz disruption set the crude rally that lifts palm oil via biofuel substitution, though it came several days before the 2026-03-06 move and likely was partly priced in.
