
Oil prices rose as Hormuz tensions pushed WTI near $100 and Brent above $111. Traders remain skeptical of Iranian proposals to reopen the waterway in exchange for deferring nuclear talks.
Murban and natural gas also gained.
The Hormuz shipping restriction keeps a significant share of global crude and LNG off the market, supporting energy prices. Higher energy costs feed into fertilizer and transport expenses for agriculture.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.