
Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict escalated. Iran reported attacks on 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping through the strait fell sharply.
Trump said high prices would persist until after the November midterm elections.
Disruption through the Strait of Hormuz removes a large share of seaborne crude and raises diesel and freight costs for feed supply chains. Prices are likely to stay elevated while the conflict and shipping disruption continue.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.