Winter 2022-23 forward prices at Algonquin, the New England hub, rose above $23/MMBtu, and TTF forwards traded near $30/MMBtu. Concern over Europe's gas supply after the Russia-Ukraine conflict kept global gas markets under pressure, and New England's pipeline constraints leave it exposed to LNG prices.
Global LNG price pressure transmits to U.S. regional gas markets during peak heating season, raising the energy cost base for processors and feed producers.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.