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The IEA's Q3 Gas Market Report forecasts global natural gas demand will fall 0.5% this year, mainly from lower use in power and industry. Tighter supply and high prices from the Middle East war are the main drivers, partly offset by LNG from other regions.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered since mid-June but remains well below pre-conflict levels.
Lower demand is being outweighed by constrained LNG supply, which keeps gas and fertilizer-linked input costs elevated for feed producers. Uncertainty over Hormuz flows keeps upside price risk in place.
iea.orgJul 7, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
