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The IEA expects the Iran war to keep global natural gas supply tight for two years, with damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility cutting capacity by 17%. The agency estimates a cumulative loss of 120 billion cubic meters of LNG supply through 2030.
A prolonged loss of Qatari LNG capacity keeps global gas and energy costs elevated, which feeds into fertilizer and processing costs for feed.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.