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An ECB Economic Bulletin box says Russian gas deliveries to the EU fell to about 20% of pre-war levels by late 2022. It warns that replenishing EU storage before winter 2023-24 will be harder because the EU now relies on global LNG, which leaves it exposed to Chinese demand swings.
Heavy reliance on competitive LNG markets and a storage refill challenge point to higher gas prices and tighter supply, which raises input costs for European fertilizer and feed production.
ecb.europa.euAdolfsen, Jakob Feveile, Lappe, Marie-Sophie, Manu, Ana-SimonaFeb 14, 2023After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
