
Global natural gas prices rose as market hopes for a Ukraine peace deal faded after no progress from recent Trump-led talks. The October TTF contract gained to $11.64/MMBtu after a 15-month low earlier in the month, while European storage stood at 76% of capacity versus a 83% five-year average.
Renewed geopolitical risk and below-average European storage support gas prices, which raises the energy and fertilizer cost base for European feed and grain producers.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.