
US natural gas prices rose on Monday while overseas benchmarks lost steam after two weeks of gains. The February TTF contract closed at $14.58/MMBtu, up 7% on the week, as the Ukraine transit agreement neared expiry.
Putin said alternative transit proposals would be difficult to achieve given Gazprom's long-term contracts.
Expiry of the Russian transit route and tight European supply support higher global LNG prices and energy costs. This tends to firm the nitrogen fertilizer and energy complex that feed buyers face.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.