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European ethanol production margins were squeezed on Thursday as natural gas prices jumped about 50% with March Dutch TTF futures above €144/MWh. European wheat futures rose up to 16% and corn up to 11% as the Ukraine-Russia conflict sent energy and grain prices sharply higher.
Higher European gas and grain costs squeeze ethanol margins and can curb European ethanol and wheat-based distillers output, while higher grain prices lift feed input costs.
qcintel.comFeb 24, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
