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StoneX assesses how the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect Brazil's sugar and ethanol market. It notes Ukraine's spring planting could fall about 50%, with corn output at risk, and about 30% of its beet area under threat.
Lower global corn availability could tighten feedstock supply for ethanol, potentially supporting corn and sugar prices over the 2022/23 season.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.