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Russia's expanded invasion of Ukraine has raised fears of disruption to Black Sea commodity exports, with vessels avoiding key export hubs. Grain and soybean futures settled sharply higher, and freight rates rose notably for Panamax, supramax and handysize vessels.
Losing or delaying Black Sea wheat, corn and oilseed flows tightens global supply and pushes buyers toward other origins, supporting grain and soybean prices and raising freight costs.
breakwaveadvisors.comSignal OceanMar 3, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
