Morning report: Corn buys back acres amidst Ukrainian planting uncertainty

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-2.3%
• Mar 18, 2022Black Sea conflict adds uncertainty to barley outlook - The Barley Bin+14.9%
• Jan 23, 2026100 mln tons of grain transported via the Ukrainian Black sea corridor+3.7%
• May 26, 2022Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine's grain moving fast | Reuters-1.9%
• Sep 7, 2026Ukrainian grain rail exports collapse 95% to Black Sea ports in August 2026 · h.ua+1.5%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%
• Mar 18, 2022Black Sea conflict adds uncertainty to barley outlook - The Barley Bin+0.0%
• Jan 23, 2026100 mln tons of grain transported via the Ukrainian Black sea corridor+1.6%
• May 26, 2022Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine's grain moving fast | Reuters-4.6%
• Sep 7, 2026Ukrainian grain rail exports collapse 95% to Black Sea ports in August 2026 · h.ua+0.4%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2026US corn planting seen down, soy acres up as Iran war inflates costs, analysts say-0.8%
• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam+6.7%
• Feb 28, 2022Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+5.4%
• Mar 21, 2022U.S. wheat, corn, soy rally on concerns about Ukraine-Russia fighting | Financial Post+2.5%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+2.6%