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Leftfield Commodity Research says the Russia-Ukraine invasion halted Black Sea shipping and sharply lifted feedgrain prices across Europe, with French prices up US$90-100/t since the invasion began. Ukraine and Russia together supply roughly 30% of global barley exports, and most Ukrainian barley has already shipped.
Russian barley exports tend to be steadier through the year, so any interruption there would matter.
Disrupted Black Sea shipments and the risk to Russian barley flows keep feed grain prices elevated, especially in import-dependent Western Europe.
barleybin.cabbsbsolesagMar 18, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
