Why the Black Sea Matters to Commodity Markets

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2022The Commodity Boom Thunders Through Feed And Dairy Markets - EDairy News English+14.9%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+3.9%
• Dec 31, 2019The Black Sea May Be the Key to Higher Wheat Prices - ProAg+0.6%
• Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily+4.7%
• May 4, 2023Wheat climbs to one-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-1.4%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2022The Commodity Boom Thunders Through Feed And Dairy Markets - EDairy News English+0.0%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+3.1%
• Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily-0.7%
• Feb 24, 2020Surge in Black Sea attacks adds to strain on global commodity flows | eKathimerini.com-2.5%
• May 25, 2022War in Ukraine to take large volumes of Black Sea wheat and corn off market in both current and next seasons – S&P Global Commodity Insights-2.8%