War in Ukraine to take large volumes of Black Sea wheat and corn off market in both current and next seasons

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.6%
• Apr 8, 2022Global wheat trade projected to dip because of war in Ukraine, USDA says | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.0%
• May 13, 2026Black Sea maritime war: how Ukraine is transferring the costs of maritime insecurity to Russia+0.9%
• Feb 24, 2020Surge in Black Sea attacks adds to strain on global commodity flows | eKathimerini.com-1.4%
• Jan 20, 2022Black Sea wheat market unmoved by Russia's troop movements: traders | S&P Global+0.8%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.1%
• Feb 24, 2020Surge in Black Sea attacks adds to strain on global commodity flows | eKathimerini.com-2.5%
• Jan 20, 2022Black Sea wheat market unmoved by Russia's troop movements: traders | S&P Global+1.6%
• Mar 1, 2022Why the Black Sea Matters to Commodity Markets+4.7%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3.1%