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USDA's April WASDE projected global wheat trade to decline because of the war in Ukraine, which the report said had significantly increased supply and demand uncertainty. Russia, Brazil and Argentina are not expected to fully offset lower exports from the EU, Ukraine, the U.S. and Kazakhstan.
Wheat futures rose after the report.
Ukraine and Russia normally supply about 30% of world wheat trade, so reduced exports from the Black Sea region tighten global supply and support wheat prices.
agri-pulse.comSteve DaviesApr 8, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
