Black Sea disruptions push wheat to record high; Australia, North America demand up

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 15, 2026French wheat prices hit record high amid Sea of Azov disruptions, EU heat wave | S&P Global+3.2%
• Sep 3, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Asian buyers turn to Australian, Argentine wheat amid Black Sea disruptions | Reuters+0.7%
• Jul 20, 2023Black Sea conflict boosts wheat prices in Southeast Asia, Australia | S&P Global-0.7%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-1.4%
• Oct 12, 2026Black Sea disruption enters third month, pushes wheat buyers to alternative origins | World Ports Organization+3.7%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 15, 2026French wheat prices hit record high amid Sea of Azov disruptions, EU heat wave | S&P Global+1.8%
• Sep 3, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Asian buyers turn to Australian, Argentine wheat amid Black Sea disruptions | Reuters-1.3%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-2.7%
• Oct 12, 2026Black Sea disruption enters third month, pushes wheat buyers to alternative origins | World Ports Organization-1.6%
• Jul 30, 2026First Thing Today | Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer-1.7%