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Asian buyers are turning to Australian and Argentine wheat after a shortfall in Black Sea supplies. Chicago wheat futures have risen about 35% since late June, and cash prices have climbed across rival exporters Argentina, Australia and the United States.
Shifting Asian demand to alternative origins tightens export availability outside the Black Sea and supports cash wheat and barley-substitute prices. The rally is driven by supply loss rather than demand growth.
reuters.comNaveen ThukralSep 3, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
