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French wheat prices hit a record high on July 14, with Platts assessing wheat at Eur219.25/mt FOB, the highest since Platts began FOB assessments in July 2025. Ukrainian strikes on Russian tankers led Russia to halt shipping from the Don River into the Sea of Azov, a route handling about 25% of its wheat exports.
An EU heatwave also threatens late winter wheat and spring crops.
Export disruptions from Russia and weather stress in the EU tighten European supply and raise the price premium for wheat. Continued heat risk to spring crops could extend support.
spglobal.comFikayo OwoeyeJul 15, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
French wheat hit a record on July 14 on the Azov halt and EU heat, which shows supply risk spilling into global prices on the move date.
French wheat hit a record on Azov disruption and EU heat, which lifted global price benchmarks and supported US futures by spillover.
