Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jan 31, 2022Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher-1.7%
• Mar 11, 2022Overcoming the threats to global food systems from Russia's invasion of Ukraine | IFPRI-1.0%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies | Reuters+6.8%
• Jul 25, 2022Wheat prices rise as missile strike threatens Ukraine export pact-9.5%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.6%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 31, 2022Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher+0.6%
• Mar 11, 2022Overcoming the threats to global food systems from Russia's invasion of Ukraine | IFPRI+2.7%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies | Reuters+6.5%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.1%
• Apr 30, 2026From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times-1.6%