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Rice supply is expected to fall this year as Asian farmers cut acreage due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs from the Iran war. An emerging El Niño is also expected to squeeze output in top exporters and importers.
Expected output declines in major exporters like Thailand and Vietnam tighten global rice supply and can lift prices. Rice price moves have limited direct effect on feed formulation.
japantimes.co.jpNaveen Thukral, Panarat ThepgumpanatMay 1, 2026
thestar.com.myNaveen Thukral, Panarat ThepgumpanatApr 30, 2026After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 12 past bullish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.5% to +6.8%), and +5.4% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Expected lower global rice supply from reduced Asian acreage (fertilizer, fuel costs from Iran war) and El Niño raised supply-risk premium in the days leading to the move.
Reports of Asian acreage cuts from fertilizer and fuel costs plus El Niño risk point to tighter supply, which supports a rally in rice futures.
The 2026-04-30 report of expected lower global rice supply from acreage cuts and El Niño adds to supply-risk sentiment just before the move.
