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Global urea fob values rose 16-25% within a few days of the Israel-Iran conflict starting, with major benchmarks in North Africa and the Middle East reaching levels not seen since late 2022. Iranian production has been curtailed, and Egyptian producers have lost all feedstock after Israeli gas flows stopped.
Iran and Egypt together exported roughly 7 million tonnes per year in recent years.
The loss of export-oriented supply from Iran and Egypt, which mainly serve Turkey, Brazil and Europe, has driven a major price advance. Expensive nitrogen will keep pressure on fertilizer costs for grain and feed producers.
profercy.comChris YearsleyJun 20, 2025After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
