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A Middle East conflict has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries much of the world's urea supply. Urea prices arriving in New Orleans reportedly jumped 17% soon after the war began, and India and Australia rely heavily on regional suppliers.
Disrupted urea exports from the Gulf tighten global nitrogen fertilizer supply, raising input costs for farmers and pushing up feed grain production costs over the coming seasons.
weforum.orgJohn LetzingMar 1, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
