Oil settles higher on supply concerns in the Mideast, economic woes subdue gains

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 5, 2026Oil settles up around 5% on supply concerns as Iran conflict widens | Reuters+12.3%
• Oct 4, 2024Oil settles up, biggest weekly gains in over a year on Middle East war risk | Reuters+2.4%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-5.7%
• Jun 18, 2024Oil settles over 1% higher on mounting tension in Europe, Mideast+3.6%
• Mar 20, 2026Oil jumps to highest settlement since July 2022 as more Mideast supply disrupted | Reuters+0.8%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 5, 2026Oil settles up around 5% on supply concerns as Iran conflict widens | Reuters+16.5%
• Oct 4, 2024Oil settles up, biggest weekly gains in over a year on Middle East war risk | Reuters+2.9%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-8.1%
• Mar 20, 2026Oil jumps to highest settlement since July 2022 as more Mideast supply disrupted | Reuters-0.5%
• Feb 19, 2025Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.2%

After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2026Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East | Reuters+1.4%
• Mar 1, 2026Euro, yen slide as Middle East conflict escalates | Reuters+1.4%
• Mar 11, 2022Speculators' net long bets on U.S. dollar edge higher -CFTC, Reuters-0.6%
• Mar 2, 2026Dollar (USD) Gains as Higher Oil Prices Damp Bets on Fed Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+1.4%
• Apr 13, 2024US dollar rallies on safe-haven bids, rate cut delay; yen hits 34-year low - The Economic Times+0.7%