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The US dollar rose to its highest since November as safe-haven demand grew amid Middle East tensions, with Israel awaiting a possible Iranian attack. Rate-cut delay expectations and diverging monetary policy also supported the dollar, which was on track for its largest weekly gain since September 2022.
Geopolitical risk and a firmer dollar add upward pressure on energy costs and weigh on dollar-denominated feed commodity prices for importers.
economictimes.indiatimes.comApr 13, 2024After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Safe-haven bids over Middle East tensions and delayed rate cuts drove the largest weekly dollar gain since 2022.
