
Brent crude fell to its lowest level in 18 years, dropping 9.8% to $22.50 a barrel, while WTI briefly traded below $20. Trump and Putin agreed to have top energy officials meet after Trump called the Saudi-Russia price war crazy, and the benchmarks have recorded five straight weekly losses.
Persistent crude weakness from coronavirus demand destruction and the producer price war squeezes US drillers and cuts biofuel economics. Lower energy prices keep pressure on ethanol, biodiesel and vegetable oil feedstock demand.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.